A mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 immunity predicts paxlovid rebound.

Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid), an oral antiviral medication targeting SARS-CoV-2, remains an important treatment for COVID-19. Initial studies of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir were performed in SARS-CoV-2 unvaccinated patients without prior confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, most individuals have now either been vaccinated and/or have experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection. After nirmatrelvir/ritonavir became widely available, reports surfaced of "Paxlovid rebound," a phenomenon in which symptoms (and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity) would initially resolve, but after finishing treatment, symptoms and test positivity would return. We used a previously described parsimonious mathematical model of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection to model the effect of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment in unvaccinated and vaccinated patients. Model simulations show that viral rebound after treatment occurs only in vaccinated patients, while unvaccinated (SARS-COV-2 naïve) patients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir do not experience any rebound in viral load. This work suggests that an approach combining parsimonious models of the immune system could be used to gain important insights in the context of emerging pathogens.

Towards systems immunology of critical illness at scale: from single cell 'omics to digital twins.

Single-cell 'omics methodology has yielded unprecedented insights based largely on data-centric informatics for reducing, and thus interpreting, massive datasets. In parallel, parsimonious mathematical modeling based on abstractions of pathobiology has also yielded major insights into inflammation and immunity, with these models being extended to describe multi-organ disease pathophysiology as the basis of 'digital twins' and in silico clinical trials. The integration of these distinct methods at scale can drive both basic and translational advances, especially in the context of critical illness, including diseases such as COVID-19. Here, I explore achievements and argue the challenges that are inherent to the integration of data-driven and mechanistic modeling approaches, highlighting the potential of modeling-based strategies for rational immune system reprogramming.

Interleukin-17 as a spatiotemporal bridge from acute to chronic inflammation: Novel insights from computational modeling.

A systematic review of several acute inflammatory diseases ranging from sepsis and trauma/hemorrhagic shock to the relevant pathology of the decade, COVID-19, points to the cytokine interleukin (IL)-17A as being centrally involved in the propagation of inflammation. We summarize the role of IL-17A in acute inflammation, leveraging insights made possible by biological network analysis and novel computational methodologies aimed at defining the spatiotemporal spread of inflammation in both experimental animal models and humans. These studies implicate IL-17A in the cross-tissue spread of inflammation, a process that appears to be in part regulated through neural mechanisms. Although acute inflammatory diseases are currently considered distinct from chronic inflammatory pathologies, we suggest that chronic inflammation may represent repeated, cyclical episodes of acute inflammation driven by mechanisms involving IL-17A. Thus, insights from computational modeling of acute inflammatory diseases may improve diagnosis and treatment of chronic inflammation; in turn, therapeutics developed for chronic/autoimmune disease may be of benefit in acute inflammation. This article is categorized under: Immune System Diseases > Computational Models.

Lipidomic signatures align with inflammatory patterns and outcomes in critical illness.

Alterations in lipid metabolism have the potential to be markers as well as drivers of pathobiology of acute critical illness. Here, we took advantage of the temporal precision offered by trauma as a common cause of critical illness to identify the dynamic patterns in the circulating lipidome in critically ill humans. The major findings include an early loss of all classes of circulating lipids followed by a delayed and selective lipogenesis in patients destined to remain critically ill. The previously reported survival benefit of early thawed plasma administration was associated with preserved lipid levels that related to favorable changes in coagulation and inflammation biomarkers in causal modelling. Phosphatidylethanolamines (PE) were elevated in patients with persistent critical illness and PE levels were prognostic for worse outcomes not only in trauma but also severe COVID-19 patients. Here we show selective rise in systemic PE as a common prognostic feature of critical illness.

Identification of Endotypes of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients.

Background: Characterization of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) endotypes may help explain variable clinical presentations and response to treatments. While risk factors for COVID-19 have been described, COVID-19 endotypes have not been elucidated. Objectives: We sought to identify and describe COVID-19 endotypes of hospitalized patients. Methods: Consensus clustering (using the ensemble method) of patient age and laboratory values during admission identified endotypes. We analyzed data from 528 patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to telemetry capable beds at Columbia University Irving Medical Center and discharged between March 12 to July 15, 2020. Results: Four unique endotypes were identified and described by laboratory values, demographics, outcomes, and treatments. Endotypes 1 and 2 were comprised of low numbers of intubated patients (1 and 6%) and exhibited low mortality (1 and 6%), whereas endotypes 3 and 4 included high numbers of intubated patients (72 and 85%) with elevated mortality (21 and 43%). Endotypes 2 and 4 had the most comorbidities. Endotype 1 patients had low levels of inflammatory markers (ferritin, IL-6, CRP, LDH), low infectious markers (WBC, procalcitonin), and low degree of coagulopathy (PTT, PT), while endotype 4 had higher levels of those markers. Conclusions: Four unique endotypes of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were identified, which segregated patients based on inflammatory markers, infectious markers, evidence of end-organ dysfunction, comorbidities, and outcomes. High comorbidities did not associate with poor outcome endotypes. Further work is needed to validate these endotypes in other cohorts and to study endotype differences to treatment responses.

Divergent COVID-19 Disease Trajectories Predicted by a DAMP-Centered Immune Network Model.

COVID-19 presentations range from mild to moderate through severe disease but also manifest with persistent illness or viral recrudescence. We hypothesized that the spectrum of COVID-19 disease manifestations was a consequence of SARS-CoV-2-mediated delay in the pathogen-associated molecular pattern (PAMP) response, including dampened type I interferon signaling, thereby shifting the balance of the immune response to be dominated by damage-associated molecular pattern (DAMP) signaling. To test the hypothesis, we constructed a parsimonious mechanistic mathematical model. After calibration of the model for initial viral load and then by varying a few key parameters, we show that the core model generates four distinct viral load, immune response and associated disease trajectories termed "patient archetypes", whose temporal dynamics are reflected in clinical data from hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The model also accounts for responses to corticosteroid therapy and predicts that vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies and cellular memory will be protective, including from severe COVID-19 disease. This generalizable modeling framework could be used to analyze protective and pathogenic immune responses to diverse viral infections.

Prioritized Research for the Prevention, Treatment, and Reversal of Chronic Disease: Recommendations From the Lifestyle Medicine Research Summit.

Declining life expectancy and increasing all-cause mortality in the United States have been associated with unhealthy behaviors, socioecological factors, and preventable disease. A growing body of basic science, clinical research, and population health evidence points to the benefits of healthy behaviors, environments and policies to maintain health and prevent, treat, and reverse the root causes of common chronic diseases. Similarly, innovations in research methodologies, standards of evidence, emergence of unique study cohorts, and breakthroughs in data analytics and modeling create new possibilities for producing biomedical knowledge and clinical translation. To understand these advances and inform future directions research, The Lifestyle Medicine Research Summit was convened at the University of Pittsburgh on December 4-5, 2019. The Summit's goal was to review current status and define research priorities in the six core areas of lifestyle medicine: plant-predominant nutrition, physical activity, sleep, stress, addictive behaviors, and positive psychology/social connection. Forty invited subject matter experts (1) reviewed existing knowledge and gaps relating lifestyle behaviors to common chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, many cancers, inflammatory- and immune-related disorders and other conditions; and (2) discussed the potential for applying cutting-edge molecular, cellular, epigenetic and emerging science knowledge and computational methodologies, research designs, and study cohorts to accelerate clinical applications across all six domains of lifestyle medicine. Notably, federal health agencies, such as the Department of Defense and Veterans Administration have begun to adopt "whole-person health and performance" models that address these lifestyle and environmental root causes of chronic disease and associated morbidity, mortality, and cost. Recommendations strongly support leveraging emerging research methodologies, systems biology, and computational modeling in order to accelerate effective clinical and population solutions to improve health and reduce societal costs. New and alternative hierarchies of evidence are also be needed in order to assess the quality of evidence and develop evidence-based guidelines on lifestyle medicine. Children and underserved populations were identified as prioritized groups to study. The COVID-19 pandemic, which disproportionately impacts people with chronic diseases that are amenable to effective lifestyle medicine interventions, makes the Summit's findings and recommendations for future research particularly timely and relevant.